Daniel Willingham--Science & Education
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What do we really know about pre-k?

4/24/2017

 
​The last decade has seen a huge upsurge in researcher interest in the consequences of pre-k education. That’s due, in part, to the steady increase over the last fifty years in the number of children enrolled in pre-k. In the last twenty years, that increase has been driven by children enrolled in public programs. 
Picture
From the report, http://brook.gs/2oRmaZk
The increase in publicly funded programs naturally enough sparks interest among policymakers as to whether these programs work.

That’s not an easy research question. It’s hard to track children in future years as their families move, it’s more difficult to construct reliable assessments for younger children, and there’s less agreement about what constitutes successful outcomes in pre-k than in higher grades.

Perhaps most troubling, it’s not obvious what the counterfactual is; in other words, you’d like to compare the outcome for a child if he goes to pre-k compared to the outcome for the same child if he doesn’t go to pre-k. That’s obviously impossible, so you’ll compare the child to another child who doesn’t go to pre-k….but what does that child do? Fifty years ago it was a good bet that “didn’t go to pre-k” meant the child was at home with his mother. Today, he might go to a home daycare, or be cared for by a relative. To what we should compare pre-k just isn’t so obvious.

In addition, the answers to these questions are clouded by political factors. Ones assessment of the efficacy of public pre-k programs has the potential to be influenced by one’s preconceptions of the efficacy of government programs more generally, and by preconceptions as to whether such programs ought to be within the role of government, whatever their efficacy.

Some researchers have countered the latter set of concerns by noting that effective pre-k programs can more than pay for themselves; children who attend effective pre-k programs will be less likely to drop out of school, more likely to end up in high paying jobs (and so pay more taxes), are less likely to be incarcerated, to need public assistance, and so on. Some researchers claim that pre-k programs return ten dollars or more for each dollar spent.

The pressing questions are: (1) are these claims accurate; (2) what are the characteristics of a “high quality” pre-k program; (3) can governments create and sustain pre-k programs with these features at scale?

Two groups of researchers recognized the need to bring together existing research and to provide policymakers with some answers that are, insofar as is possible, objective and devoid of political ax-grinding. This academic world is small enough that it was inevitable that each should learn about the other, and they chose to join forces. The result is a report, The Current State of Scientific Knowledge on Pre-Kindergarten Effects.

The heart of the report is a consensus statement. I offer four key conclusions from that statement here, verbatim, in red, with brief comments of my own after each conclusion. 

Studies of different groups of preschoolers often find greater improvement in learning at the end of the pre-k year for economically disadvantaged children and dual language learners than for more advantaged and English-proficient children.

That’s the counterfactual at work. Rich and poor kids would have different experiences if they were not in pre-k, with poor kids having fewer opportunities for an enriching environment than the wealthy kids.

Pre-k programs are not all equally effective. Several effectiveness factors may be at work in the most successful programs. One such factor supporting early learning is a well implemented, evidence-based curriculum. Coaching for teachers, as well as efforts to promote orderly but active classrooms, may also be helpful.

This is not a surprise…the curriculum matters, and providing training and direction to teachers helps. In the details of the report, curricular comparisons are pretty rough-cut: whole-child vs. skills-based (i.e., math, literacy or both). Whole-child curricula have not been successful in developing literacy, math, or socio-emotional skills…but it also sounds like a bit of a basket category.

Children’s early learning trajectories depend on the quality of their learning experiences not only before and during their pre-k year, but also following the pre-k year. Classroom experiences early in elementary school can serve as charging stations for sustaining and amplifying pre-k learning gains. One good bet for powering up later learning is elementary school classrooms that provide individualization and differentiation in instructional content and strategies.

This is one of the most important points. It’s saying that the oft-cited Perry and Abcederian preschool results are atypical. Absent continued intervention, you should expect fadeout of the pre-k benefit. I’ve blogged about relevant studies before, but the main point is intuitive. Academic and social outcomes are a product not just of school experiences, but also of home and other out-of-school experiences. If those out-of-school experiences are not especially enriching, children benefit (to a greater or lesser degree) from substituting pre-k experiences. The out-of-school experiences continue to matter after pre-k.

When you spell it out, the counter-assumption sounds a little strange: children may be behind their peers in important knowledge and skills by age four, but with a good year or two of pre-k they catch up, and can keep pace with their wealthier peers thereafter. This assumption makes sense if you ascribe an outsize importance to the first few years of development, e.g., as Freud did. But that assumption isn’t right. Outside-of-school experiences continue to matter after age six.

Convincing evidence shows that children attending a diverse array of state and school district pre-k programs are more ready for school at the end of their pre-k year than children who do not attend pre-k. Improvements in academic areas such as literacy and numeracy are most common; the smaller number of studies of social-emotional and self-regulatory development generally show more modest improvements in those areas.

There’s more than one way to do this sucessfully, and the public sector can get it right. There are probably three reasons (at least) that evidence is better for literacy and numeracy than for socio-emotional learning. First, we know better how to teach numbers and letters because we’ve been at it longer. Second, there’s less happening at home that might conflict with the learning happening at school when it comes to these skills.  Third, the relative contributions of environment vs. heritable factors (e.g., temperament) is probably larger for literacy and numeracy. 

In addition to the consensus statement, the report includes brief but meaty analyses of questions important to pre-k policy, for example:
  • How can scale-up be improved? (Training and monitoring at a level of detail similar to that used during initial design.)
  • Is the economic return really 10 dollars or more, per dollar spent? (That figure may apply to small scale programs operating in the 1960’s. Today, with a scaled up program expect more like 2-4 dollars per dollar spent).
  • Should pre-k be targeted or universal? (It depends on the circumstances in the state or district—both are effective).
If you have even a passing interest in pre-k, I recommend this report to you. 
Mike G
4/28/2017 07:48:07 pm

Can you give another sentence or 2 with your take on the fade-out issue more broadly?

If SOME of the positive effect fades, fine. But if it all fades within a couple years, is pre-K (or any other intervention, for that matter) worthwhile?

Daniel Willingham
4/29/2017 10:36:51 am

If, as seems likely, all effects fade after a few years, that means more support is needed throughout schooling...*possible* that with a really top-notch schooling env., nothing extra would be needed for kids coming from poor homes/environments. Or maybe not.

Mike G
4/29/2017 11:33:31 am

Thanks Dan.

Reece Carter
5/1/2017 03:50:16 pm

A curious thing has happened in education.

We have on our shelves at our school a textbook, which is currently used by one of our state colleges, on how to conduct the science classroom. It advises this, in a subsection titled Good Science Basics: "Science smells. It also goes bump, boom and makes other noises that make some teachers nervous. Science is noisy and may appear out of control". In my experience, however, professional laboratories are hardly like this; indeed, if things were to go bump and boom there would be some serious response to matters, I can tell you. But that is the way it is expected in the classroom. There is school science and there is real science.

21st Century Skills have been around for, well, twenty one centuries; search the works of Aristotle, Ptolemy, through to Augustine, Gilbert, Kepler, and Einstein and you will find all those old skills. In our epoch, though, the skills are New, and we energize with the heady promises of a fresh revolution. Never mind that these skill sets are based on predictions of the future (which gets us close to the perils of historicism; see Popper's "The Poverty of Historicism" for some arguments to give us pause). Things may change in two fast years. Never mind also that there don't appear to be general skill sets - critical thinking and creativity are mediated by the epistemologies of specific domains: critical analysis, historical method, scientific method, and deductive method will guide one in literature, history, science, and maths. There is school thinking and there is real thinking.

Now the issue with pre-K in this posting: There is school truth and there is real truth.

I don't wish to be caustic, and goodness knows I don't wish to impugn my own profession. I only want to show the congeries of What Oughta Be and What Really Is that seems to hamstring education; it is the curious thing that has happened. Dr. Willingham gives a good explication of this phenomenon in "When Can You Trust the Experts?" Some say social science, of which education is a part, is a defunct science, that nothing good can come of it. This is not the case. It is the hardest science. I only wish educationists could realize this and take a more careful approach to claims in research The whole child education prospectuses cite that they are research-based. Very well, then; let's make sure the research is vetted properly. And herein lies an egregious irony - most educationists aren't trained in vetting research. And couldn't we say reviewing research is an important 21st century skill? A curious thing has happened in education......

What is to be done? Popper recommends devising new social programs piecemeal; perhaps we could parse new educational programs and try out components. Remember: social science is the hardest science - adolescents do not follow the same nomology as billiard balls (but it is hard to be patient when leaders, both political and educational, demand fast and certain results). More importantly, educationists have to be trained in review and vetting, taking less romantic but more thoughtful approaches. We would do well, also, to give "the latest research" more time to be replicated. It is a dark and bloody mystery that we hunger for the latest research and reject that which is old and established (if we know about the old and established in the first place).


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